Incidence of peptic ulcer disease decreasing globally

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is still a major cause of hospitalization across the globe, but PUD-related hospitalizations and mortality have been on the decline in many countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) across Asia, Europe, Oceania, North America, and Latin America, reports a study.

In this study, the OECD database was accessed to obtain data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons.

The researchers used joinpoint regression models to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95 percent confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. They also forecasted PUD incidence to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models.

The overall median rate of hospitalization was 42.4 per 100,000 person-years. From 2000 to 2019 globally, average rates decreased for both PUD hospitalization (AAPC, ‒3.9 percent, 95 percent CI, ‒4.4 to ‒3.3) and mortality (AAPC, ‒4.7 percent, 95 percent CI, ‒5.6 to ‒3.8).

In 2021, the forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalization ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 OECD countries, 329,000 people were expected to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021.

“Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum,” the researchers said.