Curfews, local lockdowns effective against COVID-19

The combination of curfews and targeted lockdowns appears to be effective in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a recent study reports.

Drawing from the June to July 2020 experience of French Guiana, the researchers constructed a mathematical model to help elucidate the impact of control measures on the transmission of COVID-19. To reflect on-the-ground intervention, the model took into account localized lockdowns, a curfew, and other measures such as border restrictions, screening campaigns, and restaurant closures.

Under the assumption that a lockdown in French Guiana would have the same impact as that in metropolitan France, the model showed that a 10-day territory-wide lockdown could reduce the number of general ward beds needed from 454 to 256 when started at an earlier date. Delaying for a week attenuated the impact, but nevertheless dropped the number of required beds to 345.

“Eventually, given the societal and economic cost associated with a territory-wide lockdown, this strategy was ruled out and it was decided to implement less drastic measures,” the researchers said.

One such intervention was a general curfew, initially scheduled from 11 PM to 5 AM every day, but was subsequently expanded to 7 PM to 5 AM during weekdays, and for the whole weekend starting 3 PM on Saturdays.

The model showed that from a baseline of 1.40, the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 briefly jumped to 1.71 under a more lenient curfew, before dropping to 1.14 after curfew hours were extended. In turn, the projection of required hospital beds dropped to 162. Similarly, the intensive care unit beds needed decreased to 28 from 110 at the peak of the outbreak.