Omicron raises new fears

The threat of Omicron is real, with scientists working at breakneck speed to better understand its virulence and potential ability to evade currently approved vaccines.

Omicron-driven surges globally have forced countries to re-implement restrictions rather than face the risks of infections and an unimaginable toll. The Netherlands, as a preventive approach, entered into a strict lockdown a week before Christmas. Prime Minister Mark Rutte, in a televised address, described the measure as unavoidable. “The 5^th wave is coming to us with the Omicron variant. Failure to act now would likely lead to an unmanageable situation in hospitals.”

An extraordinary virus

“One thing that’s clear is Omicron’s extraordinary capability of spreading,” said US chief medical adviser Dr Anthony Fauci. “It is raging through the world.”

“This virus is extraordinary. It has a doubling time of anywhere from 2–3 days in certain regions of the country, which means it’s going to take over,” he continued.

“If you look at what it’s done in South Africa, what it’s doing in the UK, and what it’s starting to do right now in the US … it is going to be tough. We are going to see significant stress in some regions of the country … particularly in areas with a low level of vaccination,” Fauci warned.

Omicron is already causing near-vertical case growth in the US. By the latest estimates, the US could reach 1 million cases a day.

In the UK, Omicron cases jumped sharply to almost 25,000 on December 18. Omicron deaths were reported at seven. Confirmed COVID-19 cases swelled by 50 percent in a week, with Omicron overtaking Delta as the dominant variant.

5^th wave had just begun

Israel, meanwhile, reported 175 cases of the Omicron variant on December 19 and declared the 5^th wave of COVID-19 infections had just begun.

In Canada, a big upswing in COVID-19 cases was reported at 20,192 on December 23, pushing the national tally to over 1.94 million infections. In Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, 5,790 new cases were detected, with seven new deaths reported.

Meanwhile, Singapore saw a total of 546 confirmed Omicron cases as of December 25, comprising 443 imported cases and 103 local infections, according to the Ministry of Health. A cluster of 10 Omicron cases was linked to a bar on River Valley Road. No Omicron-related deaths have been reported so far.

With the Omicron variant spreading globally, Singapore must “expect to detect more cases at our borders and, in time to come, also within our community,” the Ministry of Health warned.

Experts said Omicron may be more transmissible and poses a higher risk of reinfection vs the Delta and Beta variants. Amid this new threat, countries have brought forward their vaccination schedules. Also in Singapore, unvaccinated workers will not be allowed to return to the workplace from January 15, 2022, despite a negative COVID-19 test. Some companies will continue with a hybrid work-from-home model in 2022 as long as the Omicron threat lurks.

Milder but more people are catching the virus

Early studies from Scotland and the UK suggest that infections from Omicron could be milder. “An individual inflicted with Omicron is about 50–70 percent less likely to be admitted to hospital compared with a person infected with the Delta variant,” said the UK Health Security Agency.

However, a milder virus could still put pressure on the hospital systems already stretched to the breaking point because it spreads super-fast. Any benefit of a milder virus could be wiped out by large numbers of people catching Omicron.

The agency also cautioned that the finding was “preliminary and highly uncertain.” Additionally, the protection a vaccine booster shot affords against the highly infective Omicron variant appears to wane after 10 weeks, it added. Protection against hospitalization and severe disease holds up longer though.

In South Africa, the first to raise the alarm about Omicron’s existence, there was a drop in cases in recent days, indicating that a surge may have already peaked. Estimates suggest between 60 and 80 percent of the population have previously been infected, whereas vaccination rates remain low at 35 percent.

In two studies from Imperial College London and Scotland, patients infected with Omicron were about 20–68 percent less likely to require hospital treatment vs those infected with Delta and 40–45 less likely to stay in hospital for a night or more.

“Cautious optimism is perhaps the best way to look at this,” said Mr Manuel Ascano, Jr, a biochemist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee, US.

Too early to tell

The WHO meanwhile said it is too early to tell if Omicron truly is milder and countries should not be dismissive of its potential severity.  

Besides, early data were based largely on reports from South Africa, which has a relatively young population and a high level of prior infection. Prior immunity could have blunted Omicron infections. This may not hold in countries whose populations are older and have less immunity from infection.

Fighting Omicron

Vaccines remain the best public health measure to protect people from COVID-19. The US Centres for Disease and Control recommends that those 5 years and older get vaccinated to protect themselves from COVID-19. People 18 years and older should get a  booster shot at least 2 months after their initial Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine, or 6 months after completing their primary COVID-19 vaccination series of Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna. [https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/planning/children.html; accessed December 2021]

As the pendulum swings between uncertainty and assurance, fatigue and fear have taken over many lives. After Delta comes Omicron. The world needs to be more relentless in fighting COVID-19. The best way to keep more variants from emerging is through vaccination.